Since the inauguration of the 8th National Assembly, things
have fallen apart to the extent that it has been difficult for the Senate and
the House of Representatives to settle down for business. In this piece, YUSUF ALLI,
MANAGING EDITOR, NORTHERN OPERATION examines the multi-dimensional intrigues,
its consequences and the ways out.
More than a month after its inauguration, the National
Assembly has been wobbling because of the inability of the Senate and the House
of Representatives to elect its principal officers in a peaceful, credible and
transparent manner. Rather than settling down for business, the new leaders of
both chambers have been performing Executive functions by entertaining courtesy
calls, solidarity visits and globetrotting in search of legitimacy and
acceptance by the public.
The implosion within the All Progressives Congress (APC)
caucus in the two chambers has grounded legislative activities leading to an
unnecessary and long recess to allow tempers to cool down. While Nigerians are
looking forward to July 21 for the National Assembly to reconvene, the
much-needed peace appeared not in sight as resumption from recess was shifted
again to July 28.
According to a highly-placed source, the “postponement of
resumption is to enable us calm frayed nerves and agree at amicable resolution
of the issues at stake.”
There are four things in contention to redirect the APC in
the National Assembly. These are:
convincing the aggrieved Senators and House of Representatives members
to accept the June 9 election of principal officers as a fait accompli;
prevailing on the President of the Senate, Dr. Bukola Saraki and the Speaker of
the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara to abide by the party’s decision on
sharing of principal officers to accommodate Sen. Ahmed Lawan and Femi
Gbajabiamila groups; coming up with political solutions which will reunite APC
caucus in the National Assembly and ward of infiltration by the Peoples
Democratic Party; restoration of party supremacy to enable the President focus
on the CHANGE agenda
The demands
For Saraki and Dogara, they are savouring the moment because
they have gone to the negotiation table from a position of strength having been
elected or crowned as leaders of the Senate and the House. Even their mien had
been suggestive of a pyrrhic victory. But the Lawan and Gbajabiamila groups,
which are loaded with the intelligentsia and principled leaders, have risen
above their ‘losses’ to insist on what is right and deference to the supremacy
of the party.
All the actors had used the past three weeks to hold meetings
with President Muhammadu Buhari, National Chairman of APC, Chief John
Odigie-Oyegun, party leaders and elders, and the National Executive Committee.
The crux of the matter is how to strike a deal between Saraki-Dogara alliance
and the APC/ Lawan and Gbajabiamila groups on the demands of the latter.
The template for negotiation was set by the All Progressives
Congress. The position of the leadership
of the APC was contained in two separate letters to the President of the
Senate, Dr. Bukola Saraki and the Speaker of the House of Representatives,
Yakubu Dogara, by the National Chairman of the APC, Odigie-Oyegun . The June 23
letter to Saraki, referenced APC/NHDQ/NAM/01/015/05, said: “Please find below
for your necessary action names of principal officers approved by the party,
after extensive consultations for the 8th Senate as follows: Sen. Ahmed Lawan
(Majority Leader)–North-East; Prof. Sola Adeyeye (Chief Whip)–South-West; Sen.
George Akume (Deputy Majority Leader)—North-Central; and Sen. Abu Ibrahim
(Deputy Chief Whip)—North-West.
A similar letter, APC/NHDQ/NAM/01/015/06, to the Speaker
said: “Please find below for your necessary action: names of principal officers
approved by the party after extensive consultations for the 8th House of Representatives
as follows: Femi Gbajabiamila (House Leader)—-South-West; Alhassan Ado Doguwa
(Deputy House Leader)—North-West; M. T. Monguno (Chief Whip)—North-East; and
Pally Iriase (Deputy Chief Whip)—South-South. This comes with the assurances of
my highest regards.”
Despite the template, Saraki with his Like Minds Senators
went ahead to defy APC and selected its own principal officers:
In a July 1 session with President Muhammadu Buhari and Vice
President Yemi Osinbajo, the Gbajabiamila group tabled its case and was
unwavering in asking Dogara to respect the party’s wish.
It said: “On June 9, 2015, 174 APC members in the House
faithfully and loyally followed the directives of the party to vote for Femi
Gbajabiamila and Mongunu as Speaker and Deputy Speaker while 39 other APC
members colluded with the opposition party, the PDP, to elect the current
Speaker and Deputy Speaker with only eight votes superiority.
“The party directive was based on the mock primaries
conducted for all aspirants to the two positions. Whereas the candidates of the
majority (Gbajabiamila and Mongunu) openly congratulated the winners and
continued to cooperate with them in the House, the opposition and the 39 APC
members continued to hold the APC leadership in contempt. Whereas, we the 174
party faithful and loyalists had been obedient to the party, what shall be the
reward of our loyalty to the party?
“The party has chosen not to punish the 39 APC members
including the elected Speaker and Deputy Speaker, but chose to direct, as it is
customary and conventional, on how the other four (4) principal officers should
be distributed. Alas! The opposition and the 39 members continue to hold the
ruling party in contempt by disobeying the party
“Whereas, the beneficiaries of the disobedience are citing
Federal Character Principle as the main reason for their disobedience, His
Excellency should note that (a) During the 6th Assembly (2007-2011), the
following Officers were elected from the NORTH WEST: (I) The president and
Commander in Chief, (ii) Ismaila Kawu and (III) Mutawalle–two occupied two out
of the four principal officers positions of the Minority Party, (iv) Aminu
Tambuwal was elected Deputy Chief Whip.
“(b)Also during the 7th Assembly, the following officers in
Government were elected from the NORTH WEST: (I) The Vice President, (II) The
Speaker, Aminu
Tambuwal, (III) Ismaila Kawu, Deputy Minority Leader, (IV)
Garba Datti, Deputy Minority Whip. There was never an issue of Federal
Character in these instances.
“It should be noted that the Federal Character principle as
embedded in Chapter of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) IS NOT JUSTICIABLE
AND OF NO LEGAL CONSEQUENCE. Its provision in S.14 of the Constitution is only
applicable to appointments in Federal Ministries and Agencies. The House of
Representatives is not an Agency of the Federal Government and the Principal
officers positions are elective and not by appointment. If the federal
character is applicable to the National Assembly, then both the Senate President
and the Speaker cannot come from the North, one of them should be advised to
step down.”
The Lawan group had also made presentations at separate
meetings with the President and Oyegun alongside the Deputy National Chairman
(North), Sen. Lawal Shuaib, the Deputy National Chairman (South), Segun Oni,
and the National Secretary of APC, Mallam Mai Mala Buni.
According to findings, the meeting was able to chart a “way
forward” on how to reunite all APC Senators in the 8th Senate.
At the end of the meeting, the Lawan group made the following
demands:
o APC leadership
should instil discipline and intervene in the choice of some principal officers
in the Senate.
o It is better to
leave the choice of some principal officers to APC than zonal caucuses in order
not to further divide the governing party
o Ranking must be
considered in the selection of principal officers.
o Concession of
some principal offices to the Unity Forum including Ahmed Lawan (Majority
Leader); George Akume (Deputy Majority Leader); Prof. Sola Adeyeye (Senate
Whip); and Abu Ibrahim(Deputy Whip).
o Reconciliation
is possible if Saraki group does not play the politics of winner- takes- all
o PDP should not
be allowed to produce any principal officer except those due to it as the
minority party in the Senate
The negotiation so far
When the hostility was intense, the APC called a meeting of
the National Executive Committee meeting to douse the tension, despite higher
expectations, the session could only attract a commitment to party supremacy
from all leaders (including Saraki, Dogara, Lawan and Gbajabiamila) and groups;
a pledge to work for peace and success of APC administration; and it acceded to
the request of the APC governors to wade in the crisis. The governors have set
up two committees including Aminu Tambuwal Panel to resolve the crisis of
confidence in the House and Governors Atiku Bagudu andAdams Oshiomhole
Intervention Committee for the Senate.
A source, privy to the activities of the two committees,
said: “The two committees have met only once with all the gladiators before the
National Assembly went on recess. The key actors presented their terms for
peace.
“I think the committees will use the next one week to allow
the key actors to negotiate and agree on some terms. The pressure is on Saraki
and Dogara to demonstrate their loyalty to the party by accommodating the
aggrieved.”
So far, only Dogara appears to have come up with a variant of
the party’s advice. He has partially accepted to accommodate the Gbajabiamila
group but he tactically rejected the party’s nominees. Out of the four
principal offices, Dogara only conceded two to the Gbajabiamila group, including
House Leader and Chief Whip.
In a July 16 letter to Oyegun, Dogara, who hid under Federal
Character Principle after emerging as the Speaker said: “Consequently sir, we
propose the following zoning arrangement for the distribution of principal
offices in the House of Representatives. Speaker-Yakubu Dogara (North-East);
Deputy Speaker, Yusuf Sulaimon Lasun (South-West); House Leader (North-West);
Deputy House Leader (North-Central); Chief Whip (South-South) and Deputy Chief
Whip (South-East).
“Above proposal satisfies the provisions of Order 1 of our
Rules and Constitutional provision on Federal Character and gives all parts of
Nigeria a sense of belonging. The proposal will also obviate all pending court
cases filed by some zonal caucuses on the matter.
“To resolve this problem, we had offered that some of the
aggrieved members of our party (APC) who lost the election for the office of
the Presiding Officers should produce some of the remaining Principal Officers
for peace to reign. For emphasis, we have conceded the position of the Leader
of the House and Chief Whip to those aggrieved as long as the persons do not
come from the North-East or South-West zones that have already produced the
Speaker and Deputy Speaker.
“In any case sir, I pledge as the Speaker of the House, to
accommodate other colleagues of ours in the party list, who may not be taken
care of by this arrangement, with other commensurate appointments or other
existing opportunities for service to the nation.
“We owe a duty to lay the truth bare as we have done in this
case. The party in conjunction with governors, national leaders and the APC
caucuses in the House may agree otherwise as the saying goes: ‘volenti non fit
injuria’. Our party must not have the
undistinguished honour of setting a precedent outside of the provisions of the
constitution and the Rules of the House.”
Investigation revealed that Saraki has not made any
substantial concession other than the outstanding office of the Chief Whip
which is yet to be filled. With benefit of hindsight of a list coming from the
party, Saraki played a fast one by filling some principal offices in order to
have an excuse that event has overtaken the party’s advisory. The power sharing
formula so far in the Senate is as follows: President of the Senate, Saraki
(North-Central); Senate Leader, Ali Ndume (North-East); Deputy Senate Leader,
Bala Ibn Na’Allah (North-West); and Deputy Chief Whip, Francis Ailimikhena
(South-South). A reliable stakeholder said: “Saraki’s body language has
indicated that he will not empower Lawan and Akume because they are capable of
a political rebound which can undermine his Senate Presidency. He is also
looking at the bigger picture of the politics in APC. He knows that party
leaders, who are backing Lawan and Akume, can spring a surprise any time.
“I think the Like Minds will only concede the Chief Whip and
some juicy committees to Lawan and Akume in the Unity Forum if only they will
be loyal to his leadership. The same Saraki is in league with the leaders of
the New PDP in APC to influence Dogara not to shift ground.”
The main setbacks for negotiation
The battle ahead is still complicated with each of the
warring groups engaging in subtle underground war. For instance, the pro-Dogara
loyalists have not withdrawn the suit against Gbajabiamila’s eligibility in a
court in Abuja because of the fears of a likely political resurgence if it
becomes imperative to remove Dogara. Certainly the Gbajabiamila group is
unhappy that those backing Dogara could move to tarnish its arrowhead’s image.
This is a thaw in the ongoing negotiation.
In the Senate, the Like Minds is unforgiving of the decision
of the Unity Forum to write a petition to the Inspector-General of Police on
the purported forgery of the Senate Standing Orders 2015 (as Amended). The
implication of the Deputy President of the Senate, Chief Ike Ekweremadu created
an upset in the Senate and it has changed reconciliation equation with the
Unity Forum. The outcome of the police investigation will determine many things
in the Senate.
Another setback is the involvement of Governor Aminu Tambuwal
in the reconciliation process. As a leader, who was neck-deep in supporting
Dogara, he needs more reconciliation than some of the key actors in the
National Assembly drama.
Options available to Saraki, Lawan, Dogara and Gbajabiamila
While it is difficult, remote and impossible to conduct a
fresh election of principal officers in the two chambers, the conspiracy of
June 9 will continue to haunt the 8th National Assembly. But findings revealed
that there are four options out of the woods. Ironically, each of the options
has its cost. These include abiding by the party’s directive, adopting a
winner-takes-all strategy as presently the case by Saraki and Dogara, working
out a political solution in the interim to share offices and committees before
adjustment later and leaving the National Assembly perpetually on the edge to
pave the way for musical chair in both chambers.
Abiding by the party’s directive
Although the APC is being turned into a toothless bulldog by
the camps of Saraki and Dogara by ignoring its advice on sharing of principal
officers, it will pay the two groups to have some modicum of respect for party
supremacy. Shunning the party will amount to destroying the platform with which
they won election into the National Assembly. If they have their way, they may
not have the last laugh in any party they may belong to realize their
aspirations in 2019, even after the looming realignment of forces. Their future
political alliance partners will henceforth be more circumspect in dealing with
them. Dogara was quick to realize this when he hid under the Principle of
Federal Character in the constitution to produce a variant of party’s directive
for peace to reign. It was a partial compliance with the party’s directive
after much pressure. The ball is however
in Saraki’s court whose only concession might be zoning the Chief Whip to Prof.
Sola Adeyeye in Lawan’s group of Unity Forum. He finds it difficult to ask
Senator Ali Ndume (Senate Leader) and other Principal Officers to step down
because he has boxed himself into a corner with all manner of concessions and
platitudes to get the coveted seat. As a politician with his eyes on 2019
presidency, he feels obliged to honour these subterranean and conspiratorial
agreements at the expense of the APC because it is about his personal
aspiration in the future. The alliance between Saraki and the Peoples
Democratic Party (PDP) has also made him to be on a tight rope. If Saraki
listens to APC and sacrifices the Deputy President of the Senate, Chief Ike
Ekweremadu, who is more adept in diplomatic and concession politics, he will
lose his much-cherished Senate Presidency. He has to run a pliant
administration for both APC and PDP members in the Senate.
But as 2019 approaches, the PDP may also bare its fangs and
clip the wings of Saraki by conspiring with APC Senators to remove him from
office to checkmate his presidential ambition. Overall, respecting APC’s
directive will give Saraki more respite than the marriage of inconvenience with
PDP.
Adopting a winner-takes-all strategy
This is an option with many consequences for Saraki and
Dogara and the ultimate will be about presiding over a divided National
Assembly. Senators and Reps will develop hyena relationship, conduct
legislative business with mutual suspicion, disrupt sessions, frustrate bills
and they may end up with less than 30 to 40 per cent performance. At the end of
the day, the APC’s Change Agenda might not be realized and the masses will be
worse off. For Dogara with a victory of eight votes over Femi Gbajabiamila, he
will be in a tinder box without enjoying every minute of his tenure. The
winner-takes-all attitude may also pitch the presidency against the National
Assembly leaders because it will confirm intelligence report that some forces,
who have an axe to grind with President Muhammadu Buhari, bankrolled Saraki and
Dogara’s election. The body language of the President has suggested that he is
unhappy with Saraki.
At the Eid-el Fitr prayer in Abuja on Friday, while Saraki
was adjusting his Alkimba (Special robe) to pose for photo shots with President
Buhari, the latter remained unsmiling. No Senate President or the Speaker of
the House of Representatives had successfully, since 1999, fought a sitting
Nigerian President and had his cake and ate it. The Senior Special Assistant to
the President on Media and Publicity, Mallam Garba Shehu, spoke Buhari’s mind
when he said: “As a leader, the President has given guidance… His own position
is that if the eye troubles you, whatever medicine you are going to apply,
don’t put a pin.”
Leaving the National Assembly on the edge
If Saraki and Dogara brave the odds and damn the consequences
of Lawan and Gbajabiamila’s groups, the 8th National Assembly will perpetually
be under tension because the power equation can change at any time. To survive,
Saraki and Dogara will spend a greater time in office appeasing one group or
the other; making ridiculous concessions to different caucuses to stay afloat
or they may be preoccupied with launching counter-plots against “political
enemies.” Apart from overstretching their personal and official resources,
their desperation for survival might lead to high-handedness including reaching
the temperamental stage of suspending some Senators and Representatives from
the chambers.
Still revelling in their victory, Saraki and Dogara are
confident that their removal from office is more difficult than their
subterfuge election in the light of the provision of Section 50(2) (c) of the
1999 Constitution. The section says: “The President or Deputy President of the
Senate or the Speaker or Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives shall
vacate his office…if removed from office by a resolution of the Senate or of
the House of Representatives, as the case may be, by the votes of not less than
two thirds majority of the members of that House.” But the scenarios in the National Assembly
between 1999 and 2003, which led to the emergence of four Senate Presidents and
two Speakers have proved their assumption wrong because power game in the
legislature is a “slippery” thing. Once either the President of the Senate or
the Speaker steps on the famous banana peel, getting two thirds is always easy.
A high-ranking Senator said: “The Senate and the House of
Representatives will certainly witness musical chair and we may end up changing
our leaders two or three times before the expiration of the 8th National
Assembly.
“The way things are going now, I don’t see the present
leadership surviving the next two years unless Saraki and Dogara lower their
gaiety and draw substantially from the survival magic of ex-President of the
Senate, Chief David Mark, who was extremely humble with power.
“Look at how an attempt by Dogara to please a member of the
House has backfired. He chartered a jet to go to Delta State and it has become
a moral issue. Many faltering steps like this will arise in both chambers and
such slips can lead to the change of guards.
“Money is a key weapon for retaining the loyalty of members
of the National Assembly. These members used to ask for one allowance or the
other and with a budget cut from N150billion to N120billion, there will be some
belt-tightening which might not go down well with Senators and Representatives.
They will become restive. The alternative is to abuse the oversight powers of
the Senate and the House to hold MDAs to ransom for cash. The attendant scandal
from oversight functions may prove fatal for the new leadership in the National
Assembly.
It was also learnt that from the way Dogara is conducting his
affairs, he is tied to the apron string of Saraki in deference to the alliance
which brought the two leaders to power. He seems to draw confidence from Saraki
because each time he agreed to some peace terms in the closet; he reneges in
the open due to the fear of backlash. Members of the House might not tolerate
Dogara’s servitude to Saraki for long because since 1999, the House of
Representatives had always charted a vibrant and independent-minded attitude in
contrast to the Senate’s docility. If Dogara does not sustain the template of
House vibrancy and radicalism, he will be shoved aside by his colleagues.
What alternatives for Lawan, Akume and Gbajabiamila?
Certainly, there are four options available to Lawan, Akume
and Gbajabiamila. These staying out of politics of Principal Offices in the
Senate and House of Representatives because Saraki and Dogara will deliberately
scheme them out; going back to the trenches
to re-strategize to pave way for a speedy political recovery; accepting any token concessions from Saraki and Dogara as sacrifices for the
overall survival of the 8th National Assembly; and allowing Saraki and Dogara
to burn their political fingers. Since they enjoy the backing of President
Muhammadu Buhari and the APC tomorrow is another day.
Which way out?
A disturbed President Muhammadu only succeeded in pricking
the conscience of APC leaders at the maiden meeting of the National Executive
Committee (NEC) of the party. Buhari said, “Let us as members of the APC, no
matter our personal differences get together and use the mandate given to us by
this country. This is my personal appeal to you in the name of God. Whatever
your personal interest or ambition is, please keep it close to your heart and
in your pocket.”
But he needs to initiate an enlarged reconciliation process
to reunite party leaders like Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, ex-VP Atiku Abubakar, Chief
Bisi Akande, Abubakar Kawu Baraje, former governors in New PDP who crossed
over, and all members of the coalition which formed the APC. The APC leaders
must return to the starting block for everything to come back to shape. It is a
Herculean task but doable. Or else, the Cold War may persist in the party till
2019.
Credit: Nation
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